In Maharashtra, the uncertainty in government formation and impass over the power sharing between traditional sufforn coalition partners is still unresolved even after the two weeks of the declaration of election results. No one coalition or party ready to stake a claim to form the government. As per the results, Sena-Bjp coalition has been given clear-cut majority by the voters of Maharashtra in the recently concluded state assembly elections. Nevertheless, both are adamant on the CM post, ignoring all the other issues that people of Maharashtra are facing in the form of loss of crops due to Maha cyclone. In this blog, “Impass in the politics of Maharashtra” I am going to make you aware about the reality of present political situation of the state.
Mandate is in favour of Sena-Bjp
Sena-Bjp coalition has clinched clear-cut majority in the recently concluded state legislature elections with 160 seats out of 288. It means that they have simple majority to form the next government in the state. Out of 160 seats, Bjp is the largest single party with 105 seats, whereas Sena won 56. But, the real bone of contention is the hot post of chief minister on which both are adamant and seems they are not going to sacrifice at any cost.
On the other hand, in this time, opposition parties are more resilient than earlier despite huge desertation by Sena-Bjp coalition before the elections. Expectedly, opposition stalwarts have great potential to influence the ongoing tussel between two sufforn coalition partners. Likewise, Sena openly challenging its ally to form the government without the support of Sena like what BJP did in the 2014. This is the reason why BJP isn’t going to stake a claim to form the government without Sena support.
Resilient opposition coalition of Ncp-Congress –bargaining rode for Sena against BJP.
We know that the Ncp-Congress alliance had been completely deserted by defectants lured by the Sena-Bjp ruling coalition just after the lok sabha elections by BJP-SENA in Maharashtra. Even all the leading exit polls predicted clean sweep for ruling coalition after elections, but the BJP failed to clinch clear majority on it’s own as the opposition parties fared better than expected. It was the beginning of headache for BJP as the hungry Sena got huge bargaining power with the help of opposition parties. Logically, without BJP, government formation by Sena with the help of ncp-Congress cannot be ruled out, considering the mood of opposition parties and past history of state. Simply, decreased numbers of BJP, resurrected opposition, and increased bargain power of Sena are the key outcomes which resulted in the ongoing impass in the politics of Maharashtra.
Stand of BJP leadership..
It is undeniable truth that BJP invested everything to keep Maharashtra state in their hand due to its political and economic weight in the national politics. However, results were a hidden shock for confident leadership at both level. Hence, the BJP leadership isn’t liberal to sacrifice chief minister post but extra portfolios to appease aggrieved coalition partner. If they lose the government control, then the aggressive Sena will definitely spread its influence in the next five years. In this way, the dominance of BJP may be compromised and once again they have to accept Sena as a big brother. Clearly speaking, this is the struggle for dominance and not for mere post of CM.
Aspirations of Sena and fatherly instinct..
In the last term, Sena was really victimized by its own coalition partner Bjp.They had experienced indigestible partiality in the share in power just because of BJP had considerable numbers with outside support from NCP. In this way, even the genuine demands of Sena had been thoughtfully ignored by both central, as well as state leadership of BJP. Therefore, in this time when the Sena have greater bargaining power and NCP will not dare to support BJP just because of the people liberally supported NCP against BJP.
Second, first time Sena scion, Aditya Thakre won the election and Sena chief is eager to make him CM of Maharashtra. Obviously, fatherly instinct of Sena chief is the second biggest hurdle in the path of possible solution. So, the Sena chief is emotionally adamant over the CM post for his first time MLA.
Power politics of Pawar
The role of opposition stalwart cannot be ignored when we are analysing the ongoing impass in the politics of Maharashtra. Before the Assembly elections, Sharad Pawar politics was on the verge of departure, but miraculously survived. And, henceforth, Pawar will not let his morality to be compromised by offering support for arch rivals BJP in the ongoing impass. Instead, he might think in favour of Sena as a last resort to be a part of government on the name to bring stability in times of crisis.
Earlier, when the ruling coalition partners were busy in mud-slinging, he was there to listen the grivences of suffering farmers due to Maha cyclone. Undoubtedly, that was the fine beginning of onloadig pressure on BJP to quickly form government to relieve suffering farmers. Actually, he was aware about the fact that without the support of its partner government cannot be formed. At the same time, he was sure about the Sena stand. In this manner, on the one way, he was building pressure on ruling coalition for formation of government, and on the other hand, he was actively visiting cyclone hit regions to appease farmers to gain moral support. Furthermore,everytime, in the public, he has openly accepted that numbers are in favour of Sena-Bjp and people have been voted them to sit in the opposition.
Understanding the maneuvering of Sharad Pawar, Bjp’s adamant stand, and fatherly instinct of Sena chief to make Aditya Thakre CM, we may though tentatively conclude that in the near future, it is not easy for ruling coalition to form government on the basis of committed 50:50 power sharing pattern. At the same time, in the next five years, we have to prepare ourselves to witness shocking equations from unpredictable NCP chief. Let’s see who will be victimized by whom and for what ?